#17: Six Election Reflections
Hopes, worries and observations from the national election results in India
The election results have caused celebrations as well as disappointments for both the winning Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition. The opposition is happy to have cut Modi down to size by denying him the absolute majority and chaining via coalition negotiations. Yet, it closely fell short of the numbers needed to form the government. The BJP, while managing to stay in power, performed significantly worse than its own expectations — or at least those of its supporters. I have six-point reflections covering my hopes, worries and observations on the results.
What gives me hope
First, with the myth of Modi's invincibility shattered, the balance of power has shifted. The media knows this, so it is in their interest not to overtly side with the establishment as they have done in the last decade. The businesses know the opposition has a real chance, and backing it is a real option if the government is too arrogant. Civil society can have more breathing space knowing that the space for opposition is still alive and a change of guard is not unimaginable. We can hope for better checks and balances.
Second, for all the social media meltdown over the loss of a ‘strong’ government and foolish comparisons with the supposedly ‘superior’ Chinese society, the median Indian voter seems wary of the concentration of power.1 Even some BJP supporters I know did not like the arrogance that had set in. Of course, this is one of many possible explanations for the results and everyone, including me, will exaggerate the importance of their pet peeves. This median voter sensibility, however, should not be taken for granted if social media is any leading indicator. Political parties and civil society need to do the hard work of communicating the value of checks and balances at the grassroots.
What worries me
Third, a lot depends on how the election results are analysed, and there are dangerous interpretations for both sides. The BJP might temper its religious polarisation if they conclude that it has hit the ceiling and people are now fed up. Conversely, it can further ramp it up if they feel the campaign did not go far enough to consolidate the Hindu votes.
The opposition could see its relative improvement as an expression against arrogance and a response to the call for ‘protecting the constitution’. That would be a useful lesson to guide a principled, ideological fight. However, they, particularly the Indian National Congress (INC), may also think that some of INC’s populist redistributive promises are finding currency. This would be dangerous, for it could push the states they currently (or will) govern to an unsustainable fiscal place. The BJP is then sure to respond in kind with its own populist ideas. I hope better sense prevails on both sides.
Other observations
Fourth, Modi is down but not out. I suspect people are overestimating the effect of his dependency on alliance partners. The mandate seems to challenge Modi’s arrogance, but it is also not an enthusiastic approval of the opposition parties either. In its euphoria, the opposition may forget that it has still lost. It needs to continue to work harder to win some of the key upcoming state elections and build on the momentum.
Fifth, there are two within the opposition camp whose relative stature has suffered. They are Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Tejaswi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) who underdelivered with 3 (out of 22 contested) and 4 (out of 23 contested) seats, respectively2. On the other hand, Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP), unexpectedly winning 37 (of 63 seats contested), and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), winning 8 (out of 10 contested), got a shot in the arm.
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Finally, as the cliche goes, whatever you say about India, usually the opposite is also true. In a way, much of the second-guessing of what is in ‘people’s minds’ is futile, and nobody knows what they are talking about. This includes me, as I was fully convinced about the BJP’s return with a thumping majority. So take all the gyaan with a bucket of salt.
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See Election Results 2024: How India read the election, how the BJP reads the result by Neelanjan Sircar and Yamini Aiyar.
The RJD, however, received the highest vote share among all parties in Bihar. So, all is not lost for them, and the party can still use it to bargain with others in the upcoming assembly polls.